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Is China the next world leader?
The global epidemic is changing the world. With the global economy completely stagnant, oil prices have turned negative for the first time in U.S. history. Oil prices are at record lows around the world. Factories are closing in the country, the global economy is on the verge of collapse.
In this ongoing crisis, governments are facing an uncertain future. Even in the midst of global stagnation, the buzz of change can be heard: soon China will emerge as a key player in the world order, with the fall of American hegemony.
China is the new leader
The main demand of the reformists is that history has shown that the emergence of a new paradigm of global order has taken place only when a momentous event in the history of the world has taken place.
In the post-World War, I global politics, France was weakened by arch-rivals Britain, and Britain emerged as the sole superpower in the post-World War II world. The United States continued to be a major influence in the post-World War II era, and Britain's missteps centered on the Suez Canal crisis brought the United States to global leadership. The geopolitical implications of the Corona crisis are so far-reaching that it has already been identified as the biggest post-World War II event, and the United States' recklessness in dealing with the Corona has led many to speculate on China's emergence in a changing situation.
The argument behind this claim is based on one of the most established ‘hegemonic stability’ theories of international relations, i.e. the character analysis of states in the light of the theory of stability of leadership. According to the theory, the dominance of a single leader
in the international order is essential for the smooth running of the global economic and political order — only then will the order be stable. And the collapse of the current leadership or the rise of new leadership destabilizes international order. This situation is mainly due to the aggressive behavior of the declining leadership, where they want to realize the benefits of their investment to keep the discipline going, which is already clear to us: the trade war between the two big economies and the announcement of Trump's withdrawal from the World Health Organization. In contrast, China donates 30 million to health organizations. US behavior seems to be the embodiment of that theory.
In addition, America is becoming increasingly allied, which is clearly visible through the recent dramatic changes in relations with Europe. If America is the heart of the current system, then the most important part of it is the European countries, which together have taken the system forward in an alliance on both economic and security fronts. However, at the time of the disaster, the United States withdrew its flights to Europe without prior notice, and its allies had to deal with the situation alone. The rift in the relationship is further illustrated by the German president's statement at the Munich Security Conference, "Our biggest ally, the United States, does not currently believe in the ideas of the international community." So it would not be surprising if a partnerless America did not continue to lead.
On the other hand, China-dependent dependence is increasing all over the world. While Western leaders, including Trump, are blaming China for the current situation, other countries are still looking to China for help, as the United States has cut off all aid. During this time, China has maintained extensive contacts with various countries. Coronavirus prevention is working with various groups and regional organizations in Asia, Europe, Africa and 60 countries associated with the Belt and Road are benefiting. That is why the demand for Chinese medicine and grants is increasing in the country, one of the examples of which is the statement of the President of Serbia, "China is the only country that can help us."
President Xi, on the other hand, has announced that he will work with the international community in this global crisis, where the United States is struggling to cope. While the whole of Europe has failed to help Italy, Beijing has come forward with a huge amount of medical kits. Many have called it a Chinese attempt to increase global influence, and Britain's Guardian newspaper wrote, "Beijing has become a world leader in public health."
But there are also fears
No matter how much they talk about the rise of China or the theory of the erosion of the current system, there are people who are skeptical of it and believe that China will not rise to the top soon. In this case, they are skeptical of China's ability to meet the new challenges in the current situation, as well as the inability to use established barriers such as the World Bank and the IMF. While Beijing's desire to be a world leader is no secret, and they have expressed that desire through projects such as Belt and Road, it is unclear whether they are ready to lead the world. Although the Chinese economy has performed well since 2008, Beijing has struggled to keep up with the growing social and social ambitions of the growing middle class. In addition, the yen had to be devalued for fear of declining export earnings. So in the future, the Chinese economy will continue to be challenged
Other than that, Western economies have been uneasy about China's rise from the beginning. So it's not hard to imagine that they would use Corona's excuse to take action against China. The lawsuit against Beijing in the US state of Missouri already proves that. But the most challenging, perhaps, will be the move by Japan, where Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has announced a 2.2 billion fund to allow Japanese companies to relocate their factories to Japan instead of Chinese manufacturing. It is only a matter of time before other countries take similar steps to threaten China's reputation as a major base for world trade.
After all, they can thank President Trump mainly for the fact that Beijing is now dreaming of leadership. Because, since Trump became president, the United States has leaned towards separatist policies and it has become easier for China to demand leadership; Although the United States had a strong enough leadership position before the current administration. So the US election next November is also a big observation for China. Because, if the Democrats win the election, a radical change in the current policy is inevitable. Then the competition for China will become more difficult. In addition, the failure of the Trump administration to deal with the Corona epidemic may be the biggest catalyst for the November results.
Is China the only thing to think about now?
The simplest answer is uncertainty. The events of world politics are so mysterious that it is never possible to say anything definite about its future. In the current context, however, if the United States continues to follow Trump's policy of secession, China is the most qualified candidate for the post of director of the world discipline. On the other hand, the Chinese government has lost the ability to be a loyal friend of the West for its indifferent behavior in the early stages of the epidemic. Many experts believe that both the massive loss of life and the economic damage could have been avoided if the Chinese government had been more open about the virus since its inception. So, only time will tell whether this Covid-19 will be an opportunity for China to become a world leader or a cause of great loss.
The global epidemic is changing the world. With the global economy completely stagnant, oil prices have turned negative for the first time in U.S. history. Oil prices are at record lows around the world. Factories are closing in the country, the global economy is on the verge of collapse.
In this ongoing crisis, governments are facing an uncertain future. Even in the midst of global stagnation, the buzz of change can be heard: soon China will emerge as a key player in the world order, with the fall of American hegemony.
China is the new leader
The main demand of the reformists is that history has shown that the emergence of a new paradigm of global order has taken place only when a momentous event in the history of the world has taken place.
In the post-World War, I global politics, France was weakened by arch-rivals Britain, and Britain emerged as the sole superpower in the post-World War II world. The United States continued to be a major influence in the post-World War II era, and Britain's missteps centered on the Suez Canal crisis brought the United States to global leadership. The geopolitical implications of the Corona crisis are so far-reaching that it has already been identified as the biggest post-World War II event, and the United States' recklessness in dealing with the Corona has led many to speculate on China's emergence in a changing situation.
The argument behind this claim is based on one of the most established ‘hegemonic stability’ theories of international relations, i.e. the character analysis of states in the light of the theory of stability of leadership. According to the theory, the dominance of a single leader
in the international order is essential for the smooth running of the global economic and political order — only then will the order be stable. And the collapse of the current leadership or the rise of new leadership destabilizes international order. This situation is mainly due to the aggressive behavior of the declining leadership, where they want to realize the benefits of their investment to keep the discipline going, which is already clear to us: the trade war between the two big economies and the announcement of Trump's withdrawal from the World Health Organization. In contrast, China donates 30 million to health organizations. US behavior seems to be the embodiment of that theory.
In addition, America is becoming increasingly allied, which is clearly visible through the recent dramatic changes in relations with Europe. If America is the heart of the current system, then the most important part of it is the European countries, which together have taken the system forward in an alliance on both economic and security fronts. However, at the time of the disaster, the United States withdrew its flights to Europe without prior notice, and its allies had to deal with the situation alone. The rift in the relationship is further illustrated by the German president's statement at the Munich Security Conference, "Our biggest ally, the United States, does not currently believe in the ideas of the international community." So it would not be surprising if a partnerless America did not continue to lead.
On the other hand, China-dependent dependence is increasing all over the world. While Western leaders, including Trump, are blaming China for the current situation, other countries are still looking to China for help, as the United States has cut off all aid. During this time, China has maintained extensive contacts with various countries. Coronavirus prevention is working with various groups and regional organizations in Asia, Europe, Africa and 60 countries associated with the Belt and Road are benefiting. That is why the demand for Chinese medicine and grants is increasing in the country, one of the examples of which is the statement of the President of Serbia, "China is the only country that can help us."
President Xi, on the other hand, has announced that he will work with the international community in this global crisis, where the United States is struggling to cope. While the whole of Europe has failed to help Italy, Beijing has come forward with a huge amount of medical kits. Many have called it a Chinese attempt to increase global influence, and Britain's Guardian newspaper wrote, "Beijing has become a world leader in public health."
But there are also fears
No matter how much they talk about the rise of China or the theory of the erosion of the current system, there are people who are skeptical of it and believe that China will not rise to the top soon. In this case, they are skeptical of China's ability to meet the new challenges in the current situation, as well as the inability to use established barriers such as the World Bank and the IMF. While Beijing's desire to be a world leader is no secret, and they have expressed that desire through projects such as Belt and Road, it is unclear whether they are ready to lead the world. Although the Chinese economy has performed well since 2008, Beijing has struggled to keep up with the growing social and social ambitions of the growing middle class. In addition, the yen had to be devalued for fear of declining export earnings. So in the future, the Chinese economy will continue to be challenged
Other than that, Western economies have been uneasy about China's rise from the beginning. So it's not hard to imagine that they would use Corona's excuse to take action against China. The lawsuit against Beijing in the US state of Missouri already proves that. But the most challenging, perhaps, will be the move by Japan, where Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has announced a 2.2 billion fund to allow Japanese companies to relocate their factories to Japan instead of Chinese manufacturing. It is only a matter of time before other countries take similar steps to threaten China's reputation as a major base for world trade.
After all, they can thank President Trump mainly for the fact that Beijing is now dreaming of leadership. Because, since Trump became president, the United States has leaned towards separatist policies and it has become easier for China to demand leadership; Although the United States had a strong enough leadership position before the current administration. So the US election next November is also a big observation for China. Because, if the Democrats win the election, a radical change in the current policy is inevitable. Then the competition for China will become more difficult. In addition, the failure of the Trump administration to deal with the Corona epidemic may be the biggest catalyst for the November results.
Is China the only thing to think about now?
The simplest answer is uncertainty. The events of world politics are so mysterious that it is never possible to say anything definite about its future. In the current context, however, if the United States continues to follow Trump's policy of secession, China is the most qualified candidate for the post of director of the world discipline. On the other hand, the Chinese government has lost the ability to be a loyal friend of the West for its indifferent behavior in the early stages of the epidemic. Many experts believe that both the massive loss of life and the economic damage could have been avoided if the Chinese government had been more open about the virus since its inception. So, only time will tell whether this Covid-19 will be an opportunity for China to become a world leader or a cause of great loss.
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